понедельник, 23 апреля 2012 г.

Early warning system of interethnic conflict: theoretical grounds of practice

The problem: Interethnic tension in the Crimea.

The aim: To create conflict early warning system (EWS) to make political decisions and carry out preventive measures.

The annotation: The creation of conflict early warning system presupposes the availability of information network including ethnopolitical monitoring and policy-oriented research – systemic and systematic analysis of the problem. For that it is necessary to coordinate the efforts of researchers, policy-makers and communities. Organizationally it might look as coordination of activity of research centers, public and local authorities and social organizations. To this end, the UN Development Program (CIDP) (Crimea Integration and Development Program) intends to support the initiative of a number of social organizations and Tavrida National University in establishing Crimea Peace Institute. It might undertake coordination of these efforts and carrying out the proper monitoring and analysis. It is here where the think tank may be organized. In fact, its core has been created already and a pilot project in creation of such a system has been accomplished by now. From other side the three-year project with ICAR (Institute of Conflict Analysis and Resolution of George Mason University) also supported these efforts.

The task of this article is to interpret weak and strong aspects of the job done and to propose some recommendations, which might, on the one hand, make EWS a more objective instrument, and, on the other hand, decrease its cost as much as possible. Undoubtedly, the principal point is to create not an ad hoc system to satisfy the given situation and the specific problem, but a system, which might react adequately to dynamically changing parameters of interethnic relations during a considerable period of time.
The first circumstance can be explained by the fact that the Crimea has been in a permanent political crisis. The government are changing practically every year. Different political forces, including ethnic ones, aspire to use actively all the possible resources to achieve their object. In connection with it, the EWS will be exposed to the pressure, which may influence objectivity of the results, due to the system of values, political biases and ethnic belonging of the experts and researchers themselves, too. We will try to propose measurement of such conflict indicators, which are impartial to the maximum. Undoubtedly, there will always be a problem of interpretation of the data by both researchers and policy-makers. But it is evident that the objective character of the data will be of great importance for either.
The second circumstance is caused by the fact that it is necessary to create such a EWS, which might exist for a long period of time at the expense of mainly local resources, not only funds of international organizations. Their task is to help establishment of such a system at the first stage, not a constant support of it. It is quite explainable. It is the Crimean society itself that must be interested in the EWS support.
Below we give the structure of the EWS, as we see it, taking into account specific character of the Crimea. However, it might be used in other societies with interethnic tension as well. This structure involves mechanism of the EWS only. Beyond the bounds of it there are measures, which can be considered a necessary and composing part of it. They will be described later on. The EWS will not be complete without them. But it cannot be reduced to one, though extremely popular, element. Moreover, the CEWS makes sense and matters only if it has a consumer, able and wanting to use the results of the system to warn conflicts.
The structure of the EWS


The expected results: Systematic providing those who make decisions and pursues a proper policy with analytic information about interethnic relations in the Crimea. By the way, it is the most important element in the EWS. It is essential not only to create the system and get results of monitoring, but also to bring them to the consumers’ notice for them to be used in making political decisions. It can be done through involving authorities into establishing and functioning of the EWS. For them this system and its results should not be something foreign and extraneous.

The vitality of the project will be based on the fact that the specialists of the University and, in particular, the department of political sciences training specialists in this field will be involved into its realization. Not only the University staff and officials of other scientific centers and institutes, but also students will join in the work.

In order to start establishing the EWS, it is necessary to answer a number of principal questions. Together with UNDP (CIDP) in 2000, a series of round tables Interethnic Harmony and Sustainable Development of Crimea were organized with leading scientists, experts, policy-makers and ethnic communities representatives taking part in them. They were faced with a task to interpret through joint efforts the interethnic problem field of the Crimea and to come by consensus to some recommendations, which might eliminate existing contradictions. Today it may be stated that there exists clear understanding of the problems and the methods of their decision. In fact, the EWS creation lies in the course of realization of the recommendations mentioned.

The preliminary questions:1

1.      What type of conflict do we deal with?
In the Crimea we have a potential conflict not taking a violent form. So, the creation of the EWS is of particular value as a means of propaedeutics.
2.      What are the best indicators for conflicts of different types?
We will discuss this point below.
3.      What are the structural indicators (predisposing the region to the conflict) and dynamic indicators (depending on the events changing the situation) of the conflict?
Per se, we have already determined the structural indicators of the conflict at the round tables. We have revealed the following conflictogenous areas:
1. In the social-economic sphere (the situation with employment, access to credits, landed property, access to primary social services, inequalities, etc.);
2. In the political sphere (consideration of the political system and structure, the system of elections and the system of representation, safety and legal security);
3. In the cultural, religious and ordinariness sphere (unity and dissociation in the cultural diversity, religious and psychological barriers and fears, etc.);
4. Legal problems: adequacy of the existing legislation as to the problems of accommodation and reintegration of those deported earlier.
Here it is possible to choose the indicators, which are objective and are subjected to not only qualitative, but also quantitative measurement and analysis. For example it can be, the quantity of the unemployed, teachers per 1000 children, incomes in different ethnic groups, unemployment, etc.
4.      What is the optimal combination (significance and sufficiency) of indicators and analytic methods?
In fact, this is a question of the cost of expenses on the conflict early warning system. Effectiveness should be maximal at the minimum cost. It is obvious that the system should be optimal and not very bulky, when the number of parameters interferes with both objectivity and efficiency.
5.      What should the system of conflict warning be to be used by policy-makers?
If it is too early, it will be ignored, if it is late, it will be difficult to use due to lateness or a high cost of the decision being made. It is practically stated that the most optimal is the system oriented at 3-6-12 months.
6.      What is “labor distribution” between the EWS elements, organizations involved?
The system should be three-dimensional and give holographic vision of the situation. Therefore, it should be representative. We tried to take it into account in making the graphical structure of the EWS above. At the same time, the system should be complementary. The data should supplement each other.
7.      What information might be provided by:
-         NGO’s;
-         Mass media;
-         Field officials;
-         State officials?
It will be possible to speak about it definitely, as soon as we try to determine indicators and mechanisms of the information getting below.
8.      When should the results of the EWS work become public and when will it promote the conflict?
We consider that the information should be open at the level of both data received and analytical notes.
9.      How should the EWS and the conflict resolving system interact?
The results of the round tables carried out by UNDP (CIDP) were recommendations, which are a possible plan of actions for policy-makers. These recommendations are a part of the conflict resolving system. The transition to the EWS and integration of all this into public policy in the field of interethnic relations are perfectly logical. A definite conflict resolving system has been formed in the Crimea by now. It has its advantages and disadvantages. Its main advantage is the fact that it has been possible to keep the situation within the limits of political and peaceful settlement of the problems arisen for more than a decade. Different actors take part in this system. Undoubtedly, it is the State at the level of its structural units. It is obvious that a recent liquidation of the State Committee in the Affairs of Nationalities in Kiev is not the best administrative decision. Political groups play an important role. Though formally they are united into parties, in fact, they are clients of the oligarchic structures. Communists may be considered the most party-shaped. On the other side of this political specter there should be mentioned the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatars. It has not been legalized up to now, but is a real ethnopolitical force. Being the most important political forces, they failed to find a decision for the conflict resolving system acceptable by the majority of the Crimea population. Most likely, it is non governmental organizations (NGO’s), which make a most considerable contribution on this process. Undoubtedly, most of them have political and ethnic preferences of their own, but a certain distance between them and direct political fight and their orientation on specific everyday affairs contributed to the fact that they have become real grounds for resolving of many social and, finally, interethnic problems. Perhaps, it is due to this fact that international organizations are directed at the work with these structures first of all, thus promoting the development of the third sector in the Crimea and formation of the civil society.
10.  How should the EWS signals be conveyed not to lose their topicality?
Here both periodical analytical notes and mass media may be involved. The Institute of periodical consultations might assist in deciding this question as well. Policy-makers should receive not only information, but also recommendations, including those, which might show “expenses and benefits” of the recommendations proposed.

The conflict indicators:

UN Development Program elaborated the early warning system in 1994.2 It includes the following parameters:
-         Nutritional insecurity, measured by the daily calorie intake of the actual requirement, by the index of food production per head and trends shown by ratio of food imports.
-         Job and income insecurity, reflected by a high and long term level of unemployment; by a sudden drop in real national income or in real wages; by extremely high inflation figures and by sharp inequalities in incomes between the rich and the poor.
-         Violation of human rights, reflected by the number of political prisoners, disappearances, infringement on press freedom and other violations.
-         Ethnic and religious tensions, measured by the percentage of the population that is involved in such conflicts and the number of victims.
-         Inequality reflected by the differences between the Human Development Index of the various population groups.
-         Military expenditure, measured by the relationship between military expenditure and total expenditure on education and health. 
A somewhat different system (Humanitarian Early Warning System – HEWS) was elaborated by the UN Department of Humanitarian Affairs. This system tries to include the maximal list of indicators, which were in turn divided into the following categories:
-         Population: demographic changes and differences between ethnic groups;
-         Main economic indicators, such as changes in GNP, State expenses, electricity generation and unemployment statistics;
-         Analysis of the trade;
-         Financial condition;
-         Situation as to foodstuff and condition of agriculture;
-         Social indicators, including measures against poverty and for labor-market development;
-         Analysis of public health services and nutrition;
-         Condition of the environment and natural resources;
-         Analysis of the refugee quantity, places of their residence and reasons of their appearance;
-         Human rights;
-         Position of the government;
-         Presence of conflicts or potential conflicts (in the internal, external or regional context);
-         Presence of military units and weapon;
-         Basic information: history, geography, culture, etc.
All this information may be divided into two blocks. One is a statistic (quantitative) block, another being analytical information (qualitative) block. The combination of these parameters allows revealing critical points of the development for every country taken separately. The strong point of the HEWS is the fact that it allows to have basic information about the conflict and to follow the dynamics of the conflict escalation at the same time. Simultaneously, the analysis based on the indicators mentioned allows, on the one hand, following potential conflict sources and making prognosis, on the other hand, determining conflict-forming factors. Here trend analysis is combined with punctual analysis. It is difficult to overestimate the significance of either. In particular, it is hard to gain an understanding of many modern problems of the development of one or another conflict without trend analysis (“collective memory” and the like).
 The UNDP EWS indicators cited above are to a certain extent generalization of the UN experience in different conflict regions. Obviously, every conflict has specific features of its own. In particular, for the Crimea these indicators may work, if we take into consideration that we deal with a region, not the whole country. Here appears a new category of indicators of the “center-region” relations. It is also necessary to choose specific methods of qualitative analysis. It is understandable, that the results will be of a probabilistic character, and they should not be limited by public opinion polls.
 However, before we adapt these indicators for the situation in the Crimea, it would be extremely useful to build several matrices, which further on would assist in understanding and following processes, taking place here.

The matrix of the main conditions, causes and symptoms of the origin of the conflict situation 3


Levels
Historical
Social-cultural
Economic
Political
Social consciousness
Everyday
Inter­personal atti­tudes
Oral history
Cultural differences

Family traditions

Religion

Customs

Language

Dichotomic thinking (friend/enemy)
Unem­ployment

Discrimi­nation at work or on admission to work
Political identity

Political ideology/ nationalism
Social stereotypes
Everyday incidents
Minor groups
Living history

Family memory
Cultural differences

Traditions

Group identification

Religious customs
Availability of work
Making a political conflict ethnic

Ethnopolitical identity
Social stereotypes

Prejudices
Graffiti

Mass media
Commu-nities (ethnic groups)
Living history

History taught
Cultural differences

Traditions

Symbols

Myths

Distinctive religious values
The area of work

Sphere of labor

Cultural division of labor
Representation in the local authorities

Cultural division in administrative organs

Making a political conflict ethnic
Social stereotypes

Prejudices

Fear of assimilation
Demographic changes
Regional
Common historic heritage

Historic determi­nants
Social perception

Traditions

Cultural differences
State investments

Foreign investments

Insufficiency of investments
Centralization

The level of democratization

Regional differences
Attitude towards other ethnic groups
Ethnic differences in unemploy­ment
Intrastate
Living history

History taught
Beliefs and taboo

Distinctive religious values

Particularities of ethnic life

Cultural
 dif­ferences

-Correspondence between internal and international laws
-Breach of political obligations
-Weakness of the political system
-Making the State behavior ethnic
-Strategy of the people and State formation
-Self-perception of ethnic groups
-Participation of ethnic groups in decision-making
-Existence of laws protecting national minorities and cor­responding consti­tutional clauses
-Foreign allies
-Political demarca­tion due to national features
-Ethnopolitical fragmentation and mobilization
-Asymmetry of political relations
-The level of demo­cratic consolidation
-Structure of the society
-Structure of politi­cal institutes
-Structure of the state
-The problem of citizenship and civic rights 
Social breakup

Social labels
Mass demonstra­tions

Mass media
Interstate
Interpreta­tion of the past. Blank spots of history
Particularities of ethnic life

Traditions

Distinctive religious values

Cultural differences
Investments

Economic competition

Social stereotypes

Public relations
International climate of mass media

Strong parent states

Possibilities of intergration


If we consider the early warning system in connection with conflict resolving system, the above matrix should be supplemented with the matrix of the corresponding subjects of influence and measures.4

Levels

Subjects of influence

Measures

Inter­personal atti­tudes
Referent (formal and informal) groups, people of authority
People’s diplomacy, mediation, civic education
Minor groups
Local administration, trustworthy policy-makers, representatives of the church
People’s diplomacy, mediation, trainings in leadership, trainings in conflict resolving, proper representation in decision-making by the local administration, changes in politics in the field of education and the like (police reform), education in the field of human rights
Communities (ethnic groups)
Local administration, social-cultural organizations, NGO, women’s organizations
People’s diplomacy, mediation, negotiations, management of differences, working meetings in problem solving, joint work, education in the field of human rights, power division
Regional
State regional organs, Funds, institutes, NGO
Negotiations, transboundary cooperation, support of task programs
Intrastate
Ombudsmen, U.N.O High Commissioner in national minorities. State institutes
Competence of mass media, radio and TV-programs of national minorities, multicultural education, monitoring of human rights, political reforms
Interstate
Governments, International Court in Hague, OBSE Center in preventing conflicts in Vienna, U.N.O High Commissioner in national minorities
Preventive diplomacy, track-two diplomacy, OBSE Human Dimension mechanism, exchange programs, bilateral agreements, economic integration, unofficial facilitation, joint programs in environment protection, management of natural resources use, gestures of good will

In fact, much of cited in the matrices has been carried out in the Crimea during the last decade. This work has become more purposeful and effective after introduction of the objective standards of work by the UNDP organizations. At the same time it can be mentioned that a vast area of possibilities not only to prevent and resolve interethnic conflicts in the Crimea, but also to assist in its stable development, remains idle.

Summarizing everything mentioned above, we may say that the EWS in the Crimea might conduct monitoring according to the following indicators (or categories):

The indicators of the first group

Power and politics
 State and administrative structure (existence of the law about local government, about national minorities, local administrations, Councils under the President, regional mejlises – local authorities of Crimean tatars, national-cultural societies).
Political regime and political doctrine (combination of unitarity of the State and territorial autonomy of the Crimea, institutions of local governing, parties and blocs, particularities of Mejlis – the central organ of Crimean tatars, as a state-party system, elections and power transfer system, National and State programs at different levels).
Ethnic representation (in the power, business, mass media, science, etc.).
“Center-periphery” relation.
Individual and group rights (legislative security, violations, control, activity in the field of human rights protection; mechanisms of the laws realization).
Public order and control (the status and ethnic membership in the militia, office of public prosecutor, courts and justice system, the usage of forces of law and order in the streets - the militia, military units).
Legitimateness, legality and competence of the leaders and authorities. (The government change. Establishment of new organs and liquidation or reorganization of old ones. The change of the governing body of the organs involved in decision of problems of interethnic relations.)
Opposition forces and their ideology.
Official symbols and the calendar.

The indicators of the second group

Economics
Production and macroeconomic dynamics. (Analysis of the State and regional budgets according to the years and the parameters, connected with decision of problems of interethnic relations.)
The level of income and the gap in income between social and ethnic groups.
Unemployment and its character.
Labor division (ethnic, regional; employment in the prestigious spheres).
Social mobility. (Marginal groups and their composition.)
Participation in privatization, including that of the land.
Land resources (the land reform, quality of the land, per capita quantity, potentialities of its use).
Water resources and conditions of their use (drinking water, watering, conduits, etc.).
Infrastructure of the settlements of compact dwelling of the deported.
Ecological problems.
Social protectability.
Character of delinquency.

The indicators of the third group
Social relations
Contacts and stereotypes.
The past conflicts and group traumas.
Behavior and views of ethnic group leaders. (Mobilization abilities of ethnic groups and their leaders (ratings in their own ethnic group and in other ones).
Groups of the malcontent.
 Electoral behavior of ethnic groups.
Changes in self-appraisal (ethnic and social correlation, new and old identities).
Myths.
Fears.
The level of tolerance.
The development of the third sector and its particularities.

The indicators of the fourth group
Demography and migration
Population (dynamics of the population size, ethnic composition, the level of urbanization, etc.).
Interethnic marriages and divorces.
Natality (birth-rate, death-rate, life expectancy).
Migration (internal and external; refugees, repatriates, seasonal workers). Internal migration: ethnosocial particularities of urbanization, taking into account social composition of the deported citizens.
The number of refugees from the regions of the “hot” interethnic conflicts.

The indicators of the fifth group

Culture, education, mass media
Cultural dominants (ethnic purposes, stereotypes, orientations, values and their interiorization in process of upbringing).
Religion (confessional composition and dynamics of its modification, growth of religious communes and religious buildings, inter-confessional tolerance and interaction, the role of the State and its attitude towards different confessions, the place of the religion in public consciousness and activity of ethnic communes).
Conditions of the languages functioning (legislation concerning languages, the official language, the language of business, education, mass media, interethnic communication).
School education (the State support of the education in the native languages, availability of handbooks and methodical literature, staff, ethnic composition of the teachers).
Higher education (ethnic composition of students, contents of courses, students’ life).
Mass media (structure, education and ethnic composition of journalists, independence and control, contents of programs).
Holidays and historic dates (conditions of carrying out, support by authorities, participation of policy-makers, participation of different ethnic groups).

The indicators of the sixth group

External (foreign) conditions
Existence and influence from the part of parent-states and neighboring countries with kindred culture and religion. External support of opposition groups.
Regional stability.
Fight for geopolitical influence.
Transboundary cooperation.
Modification of the image (of the country, region, ethnic group).

It would be great to follow all the six groups of the indicators in all the mentioned parameters. However, it is not possible based on the available resources, and is superfluous for making political decisions. Thus, there is a task of concentration, choosing the most important indicators, which would cover the entire problem field or a considerable part of it with necessity and high degree of sufficiency. The difficulty is that one can select quite a number of such optimal configurations. We will propose our own variant based on the two criteria mentioned above: objectivity and price. An important selection criterion may become what we know to be the most destabilizing factors at present:
-         the language situation;
-         social-political status of an ethnic group and as a consequence different attitude towards different branches and levels of power;
-         economic status of an ethnic group.

We would like to note straight away that some parameters are of a structural character, their modification lasts for a long period of time and they exceed the limits of the EWS, calculated for a maximum period of one year. Examples of it are almost all the parameters of the indicators of the first group “power and politics”. Here fundamental changes occur relatively quickly in connection with a political crisis only. The stable political system prefers to carry them out through bureaucratic procedures preventing sudden fluctuations of the political structures. However, there exist several parameters, which may be counted in the EWS. They are legitimateness and competence of the leaders and power, as well as representation of different ethnic groups in different structures at all the levels. It is obvious that such representation takes a long period of time too, but here analysis of the situation in dynamics during the last years is quite helpful. If a question of representation is rather a problem of information acquisition with help of State organs, legitimateness and competence may be determined by both a public opinion poll and acquisition of indirect objective data. For instance, data about measures taken (meetings, business trips, State decrees, etc.) with participation of central authorities and State machinery for decision of interethnic problems. Their level, analyzed in dynamics year by year, will provide indirect characteristics of the parameters marked. Moreover, these data carry more than just a characteristic of legitimateness and competence. They can be received in the corresponding Crimean ministries, the President representation, the Supreme Council, arranging mechanism of collection and supply of such information.
The second group of the indicators “economics” may be characterized by the following countable parameters: buying business patents, the quantity of flats and houses bought in the Crimea, purchase and sale of cars, receiving the foreign passports for travels. All these data characterize the real income of the population and its economic opportunities. If we count them for a definite number of people on the same scale, it will be easy to determine the real economic condition of this or that ethnic group. In fact, such hardly-countable parameters in Crimean reality as unemployment and social protectability will be covered too. Character of the delinquency is a very interesting parameter. It is obvious that proposed methods are characterized by the collection of indirect data, which may nevertheless describe the picture three-dimensionally, objectively and with the maximal degree of accuracy possible in the country suffering from the systemic crisis. On this way difficulties will appear at the first stage. But once created, the system may work effectively and for a long period.
The third group of the indicators “social relations” is to a greater extent based on analysis of psychological phenomena. Qualitative character of these parameters makes them difficult to be counted. Of course, there are many methods: public opinion polls, focus groups, interviews, etc. Not rejecting them, we would propose the frequency analysis of words in the Crimean press. Here, too, difficulties will be met with at the first stage only, later on the work becoming the question of technique.
The indicators of the fourth group “demography and migration” possess a great degree of objectivity. Taking into consideration the particularities of our country and the strict character of citizens’ migration fixation, this indicator may be considered the most reliable. Especially under the conditions when the next population census is postponed due to its high cost for the country. Demographic and migration processes are of great heuristic value, as taking into account other factors, they allow to make serious prognoses about the development of interethnic relations. In particular, the law of 20% will unambiguously work for the Crimea. Namely, if the size of one of ethnic groups exceeds 20% in this or that polyethnic society, it causes social-political changes in the society. Of course, 20% is a relative figure, and here some deviations are possible. But analysis of interethnic conflicts in the post-Soviet republics shows that such regularity is observed. It may seem that there are examples denying this regularity. For instance, Russians in the Baltic States. As a matter of fact, it is not so. There the processes are at the complex uncompleted stage and require their settlement. Strictly speaking, we do not discover anything fundamentally new here. We adopted this regularity from management theory. If one fifth of the firm employees are ready to changes, they will take place.
Some parameters of the indicators of the fifth group “Culture, education, mass media” can be objectively analyzed as well. The Ministry of Education has at its disposal detailed information about the quantity of pupils, classes, and schools with ethnic compositions of pupils and teaching in this or that language. At this, the information is arranged according to the years. It is obvious that the prognosis based on these data is highly reliable. Taking into account demographic and migration tendencies, it is quite real to calculate the composition of active population by years, potential of any ethnic group by this or that elections, etc. And, in consequence, it is possible to draw conclusions about the status of interethnic relations not only for a short period, but also for quite a long time. Teaching in native languages and the dynamics in the development of school system certainly influence interethnic relations. Broadcasting in native languages is an important parameter, too. In the Crimea, not only the duration, but also the source of broadcasting takes on special significance. All these data may be collected and analyzed from the quantitative point of view. It would be of interest to present an objective picture of revival and development of different mass confessions in the Crimea, all the more, as they are concentrated on corresponding ethnopolitical groups. The number of new-opened churches, cloisters, tabernacles, mosques and, consequently, finances spent on this, will make the picture of international relations more vivid. Rhetoric will be replaced by the study of objective parameters.
The indicators of the sixth group “external (foreign) conditions” undoubtedly influence the internal status of the Crimea. However, relations between geopolitical players in the Crimea are gradually coming to the situation of political dialogue, excluding rude interference in internal affairs of Ukraine. That is why here the most important parameters might be figures characterizing cooperation, first of all, with the Black Sea countries. The quantity of foreign investments per capita might become one of your indices of the development of the situation in the Crimea. Geography of investments might show the perspective for regional and transboundary development of the Crimea. This parameter would characterize objective foreign evaluation of its development. 
It should be mentioned that some data might be presented graphically. After a certain data processing they might be compared, and in such a case some conclusions would be confirmed by others; the degree of their reliability would be growing and probability of prognosis increase.
There may be doubts as to the possibility of the data collection on the parameters mentioned. There is a problem, but it may be easily solved, if those bodies and organizations, which should present the corresponding information, would be interested in the EWS creation and in the results it will produce. Annual statistic reports on the Crimea by the Republican Committee in statistics may be of great help.
At present, in cooperation with UNDP (CIDP) a pilot study to work through the EWS mechanism has been carried out. At this, to take the data on the indicators mentioned above (or similar ones) interviewing of both the Crimea inhabitants and experts was used. Not denying the significance of such a method, it should be taken into account that under the conditions of interethnic tension and involvement of the interviewers themselves into social-political reality, the results may be doubtful and considered as a specific instrument of manipulation. Unfortunately, this opinion is so widespread and proved by numerous facts of studies of poor quality, that it made Association of Sociologists of Ukraine adopt an ethic code and corresponding means. The proposed approach will encounter the same problems in interpretation of the database collected. One indisputable advantage is that it will be difficult to call in question the database itself. And facts are stubborn things, they make a great deal clear and evident even without any interpretation. 
It is obvious that to solve such a hard task as the EWS creation, it will be necessary to use different methods, taking into account the criteria mentioned above. Such most operational methods may include: analysis of the documents, collection and analysis of the statistic data, public opinion polls, content analysis of the press.
We dwelt on the core and structure of the CEWS only. It should be supplemented with a set of measures, such as:
1. Creation and introduction into the system of continuous education the appropriate courses:
-         programs of conflict warning and resolving;
-         mediation;
-         negotiation process;
-         cross-cultural adaptation;
-         culture of peace and tolerance;
-         the third sector problems (youth leadership, strategic planning and work in teams, NGO’s management, project management, fundraising, etc.);
-         peace-making;
-          problems of interethnic relations;
-         gender factor in interethnic problem resolving.
2. Preparation of a group of trainers in the field of conflict warning, resolving and management from among lecturers to work with the leaders of communities in order to prepare trainers for the communities;
3. Think tank and knowledge base creation;
4. Carrying out a series of seminars in the topics mentioned in the regions;
5. Carrying out a series of seminars on the problem of the social order: cooperation of the State and NGOs (formation of different social groups in certain forms of activity, establishment and support of relatively stable structure of intra-group and inetr-group relations, socialization and adaptation, norm-creation and social control stimulation, contribution to new social institutions foundation);
6. Separation of the youth movement as a priority with its own system of measures;
7. Human rights monitoring;
8. International consultations for the experts working in the region;
9. The exchange of delegations to get acquainted with experience of different countries in interethnic conflict resolving;
10. Working meetings of ethnic communities leaders with law-enforcement organs and other State institutions and local authorities;
11. Teaching peace-making to all the journalists of all the ethnic groups, joint creation of the positive image of the ethnic groups of the Crimea;
12. Joint interethnic projects;
13. Support of the third sector.
The system of the EWS measures and instruments of conflict warning is not at all limited by the listed issues. Practice, as a rule, suggests new forms, most adequate for a given region. Here the most important thing is to create certain stable motivation for conflict warning with help of these measures, and in such a case there will appear new forms of work.
Organizational aspects of the system were excluded from this article, as they are technical problems of management.

In writing this article we used materials and experience of the UNDP, Institute of ethnology and ethnography of Russian Academy of Sciences, consultations and propositions of the faculty of Institute of Conflict Analysis and Resolving of George Mason University, as well as the materials of the following sites:




1 www.csf.colorado.edu/isa/isn/23-1/brecke.html (Brecke P. An Agenda for Conflict Early Warning Research)
4 see ibid.
6 www. oau-oua.org/document/mechanism/english/mech02.htm
7 www.undp.org/rbec/programmes/regional/dgp.htm

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