The problem: Interethnic
tension in the Crimea .
The aim: To create conflict
early warning system (EWS) to make political decisions and carry out preventive
measures.
The annotation: The
creation of conflict early warning system presupposes the availability of
information network including ethnopolitical monitoring and policy-oriented
research – systemic and systematic analysis of the problem. For that it is
necessary to coordinate the efforts of researchers, policy-makers and
communities. Organizationally it might look as coordination of activity of
research centers, public and local authorities and social organizations. To
this end, the UN Development Program (CIDP) (Crimea Integration and Development
Program) intends to support the initiative of a number of social organizations
and Tavrida National University Institute of Conflict
Analysis
The task of this article is
to interpret weak and strong aspects of the job done and to propose some
recommendations, which might, on the one hand, make EWS a more objective instrument,
and, on the other hand, decrease its cost as much as possible. Undoubtedly, the
principal point is to create not an ad
hoc system to satisfy the given situation and the specific problem, but a
system, which might react adequately to dynamically changing parameters of
interethnic relations during a considerable period of time.
The first circumstance can be
explained by the fact that the Crimea has been
in a permanent political crisis. The government are changing practically every
year. Different political forces, including ethnic ones, aspire to use actively
all the possible resources to achieve their object. In connection with it, the
EWS will be exposed to the pressure, which may influence objectivity of the
results, due to the system of values, political biases and ethnic belonging of
the experts and researchers themselves, too. We will try to propose measurement
of such conflict indicators, which are impartial to the maximum. Undoubtedly, there
will always be a problem of interpretation of the data by both researchers and
policy-makers. But it is evident that the objective character of the data will
be of great importance for either.
The second circumstance is caused
by the fact that it is necessary to create such a EWS, which might exist for a
long period of time at the expense of mainly local resources, not only funds of
international organizations. Their task is to help establishment of such a
system at the first stage, not a constant support of it. It is quite
explainable. It is the Crimean society itself that must be interested in the
EWS support.
Below we give the structure of the
EWS, as we see it, taking into account specific character of the Crimea . However, it might be used in other societies with
interethnic tension as well. This structure involves mechanism of the EWS only.
Beyond the bounds of it there are measures, which can be considered a necessary
and composing part of it. They will be described later on. The EWS will not be complete
without them. But it cannot be reduced to one, though extremely popular,
element. Moreover, the CEWS makes sense and matters only if it has a consumer,
able and wanting to use the results of the system to warn conflicts.
The structure of the EWS
The expected results: Systematic
providing those who make decisions and pursues a proper policy with analytic
information about interethnic relations in the Crimea .
By the way, it is the most important element in the EWS. It is essential not
only to create the system and get results of monitoring, but also to bring them
to the consumers’ notice for them to be used in making political decisions. It
can be done through involving authorities into establishing and functioning of
the EWS. For them this system and its results should not be something foreign
and extraneous.
The vitality of the project will be based on the fact that the specialists of the University
and, in particular, the department of political sciences training specialists
in this field will be involved into its realization. Not only the University
staff and officials of other scientific centers and institutes, but also
students will join in the work.
In order to
start establishing the EWS, it is necessary to answer a number of principal
questions. Together with UNDP (CIDP) in 2000, a series of round tables Interethnic Harmony and Sustainable
Development of Crimea were organized with leading scientists, experts,
policy-makers and ethnic communities representatives taking part in them. They
were faced with a task to interpret through joint efforts the interethnic
problem field of the Crimea and to come by
consensus to some recommendations, which might eliminate existing contradictions.
Today it may be stated that there exists clear understanding of the problems
and the methods of their decision. In fact, the EWS creation lies in the course
of realization of the recommendations mentioned.
The preliminary questions:1
1.
What type of conflict do we
deal with?
In the Crimea we have a potential
conflict not taking a violent form. So, the creation of the EWS is of
particular value as a means of propaedeutics.
2.
What are the best
indicators for conflicts of different types?
We will discuss this point below.
3.
What are the structural
indicators (predisposing the region to the conflict) and dynamic indicators
(depending on the events changing the situation) of the conflict?
Per se, we have already determined
the structural indicators of the conflict at the round tables. We have revealed
the following conflictogenous areas:
4. Legal
problems: adequacy of the existing legislation as to the problems of
accommodation and reintegration of those deported earlier.
Here it is possible to choose the
indicators, which are objective and are subjected to not only qualitative, but
also quantitative measurement and analysis. For example it can be, the quantity
of the unemployed, teachers per 1000 children, incomes in different ethnic
groups, unemployment, etc.
4.
What is the optimal combination
(significance and sufficiency) of indicators and analytic methods?
In fact,
this is a question of the cost of expenses on the conflict early warning
system. Effectiveness should be maximal at the minimum cost. It is obvious that
the system should be optimal and not very bulky, when the number of parameters
interferes with both objectivity and efficiency.
5.
What should the system of
conflict warning be to be used by policy-makers?
If it is
too early, it will be ignored, if it is late, it will be difficult to use due
to lateness or a high cost of the decision being made. It is practically stated
that the most optimal is the system oriented at 3-6-12 months.
6.
What is “labor
distribution” between the EWS elements, organizations involved?
The system
should be three-dimensional and give holographic vision of the situation.
Therefore, it should be representative. We tried to take it into account in
making the graphical structure of the EWS above. At the same time, the system
should be complementary. The data should supplement each other.
7.
What information might be
provided by:
-
NGO’s;
-
Mass media;
-
Field officials;
-
State officials?
It will be
possible to speak about it definitely, as soon as we try to determine
indicators and mechanisms of the information getting below.
8.
When should the results of
the EWS work become public and when will it promote the conflict?
We consider
that the information should be open at the level of both data received and
analytical notes.
9.
How should the EWS and the
conflict resolving system interact?
The results
of the round tables carried out by UNDP (CIDP) were recommendations, which are
a possible plan of actions for policy-makers. These recommendations are a part
of the conflict resolving system. The transition to the EWS and integration of
all this into public policy in the field of interethnic relations are perfectly
logical. A definite conflict resolving system has been formed in the Crimea by now. It has its advantages and disadvantages.
Its main advantage is the fact that it has been possible to keep the situation
within the limits of political and peaceful settlement of the problems arisen
for more than a decade. Different actors take part in this system. Undoubtedly,
it is the State at the level of its structural units. It is obvious that a
recent liquidation of the State Committee in the Affairs of Nationalities in Kiev Crimea population. Most likely, it is non
governmental organizations (NGO’s), which make a most considerable contribution
on this process. Undoubtedly, most of them have political and ethnic preferences
of their own, but a certain distance between them and direct political fight
and their orientation on specific everyday affairs contributed to the fact that
they have become real grounds for resolving of many social and, finally,
interethnic problems. Perhaps, it is due to this fact that international
organizations are directed at the work with these structures first of all, thus
promoting the development of the third sector in the Crimea
and formation of the civil society.
10.
How should the EWS signals
be conveyed not to lose their topicality?
Here both
periodical analytical notes and mass media may be involved. The Institute of
periodical consultations might assist in deciding this question as well.
Policy-makers should receive not only information, but also recommendations,
including those, which might show “expenses and benefits” of the
recommendations proposed.
The conflict indicators:
UN
Development Program elaborated the early warning system in 1994.2 It includes the following parameters:
-
Nutritional insecurity, measured by the daily
calorie intake of the actual requirement, by the index of food production per
head and trends shown by ratio of food imports.
-
Job and income insecurity, reflected by a high
and long term level of unemployment; by a sudden drop in real national income
or in real wages; by extremely high inflation figures and by sharp inequalities
in incomes between the rich and the poor.
-
Violation of human rights, reflected by the
number of political prisoners, disappearances, infringement on press freedom
and other violations.
-
Ethnic and religious tensions,
measured by the percentage of the population that is involved in such conflicts
and the number of victims.
-
Inequality reflected by the
differences between the Human Development Index of the various population
groups.
-
Military expenditure, measured by the
relationship between military expenditure and total expenditure on education
and health.
A somewhat different system
(Humanitarian Early Warning System – HEWS) was elaborated by the UN Department
of Humanitarian Affairs. This system tries to include the maximal list of
indicators, which were in turn divided into the following categories:
-
Population: demographic
changes and differences between ethnic groups;
-
Main economic indicators,
such as changes in GNP, State expenses, electricity generation and unemployment
statistics;
-
Analysis of the trade;
-
Financial condition;
-
Situation as to foodstuff
and condition of agriculture;
-
Social indicators, including
measures against poverty and for labor-market development;
-
Analysis of public health
services and nutrition;
-
Condition of the environment
and natural resources;
-
Analysis of the refugee
quantity, places of their residence and reasons of their appearance;
-
Human rights;
-
Position of the government;
-
Presence of conflicts or
potential conflicts (in the internal, external or regional context);
-
Presence of military units
and weapon;
-
Basic information: history,
geography, culture, etc.
All this information may be divided
into two blocks. One is a statistic (quantitative) block, another being
analytical information (qualitative) block. The combination of these parameters
allows revealing critical points of the development for every country taken
separately. The strong point of the HEWS is the fact that it allows to have
basic information about the conflict and to follow the dynamics of the conflict
escalation at the same time. Simultaneously, the analysis based on the indicators
mentioned allows, on the one hand, following potential conflict sources and
making prognosis, on the other hand, determining conflict-forming factors. Here
trend analysis is combined with punctual analysis. It is difficult to
overestimate the significance of either. In particular, it is hard to gain an
understanding of many modern problems of the development of one or another
conflict without trend analysis (“collective memory” and the like).
The UNDP EWS indicators cited
above are to a certain extent generalization of the UN experience in different
conflict regions. Obviously, every conflict has specific features of its own.
In particular, for the Crimea these indicators
may work, if we take into consideration that we deal with a region, not the
whole country. Here appears a new category of indicators of the “center-region”
relations. It is also necessary to choose specific methods of qualitative
analysis. It is understandable, that the results will be of a probabilistic
character, and they should not be limited by public opinion polls.
However, before we adapt these
indicators for the situation in the Crimea , it
would be extremely useful to build several matrices, which further on would
assist in understanding and following processes, taking place here.
The matrix of the main conditions, causes and symptoms of the origin of the conflict situation 3
Levels
|
Historical
|
Social-cultural
|
Economic
|
Political
|
Social consciousness
|
Everyday
|
Interpersonal attitudes
|
Oral
history
|
Cultural
differences
Family
traditions
Religion
Customs
Language
Dichotomic
thinking (friend/enemy)
|
Unemployment
Discrimination at work or on admission to
work
|
Political
identity
Political
ideology/ nationalism
|
Social
stereotypes
|
Everyday
incidents
|
Minor groups
|
Living
history
Family
memory
|
Cultural
differences
Traditions
Group
identification
Religious
customs
|
Availability
of work
|
Making a
political conflict ethnic
Ethnopolitical
identity
|
Social
stereotypes
Prejudices
|
Graffiti
Mass
media
|
Commu-nities (ethnic groups)
|
Living
history
History
taught
|
Cultural
differences
Traditions
Symbols
Myths
Distinctive
religious values
|
The area
of work
Sphere of
labor
Cultural
division of labor
|
Representation
in the local authorities
Cultural
division in administrative organs
Making a
political conflict ethnic
|
Social
stereotypes
Prejudices
Fear of
assimilation
|
Demographic changes
|
Regional
|
Common
historic heritage
Historic
determinants
|
Social
perception
Traditions
Cultural
differences
|
State
investments
Foreign
investments
Insufficiency
of investments
|
Centralization
The level
of democratization
Regional
differences
|
Attitude
towards other ethnic groups
|
Ethnic
differences in unemployment
|
Intrastate
|
Living
history
History
taught
|
Beliefs
and taboo
Distinctive
religious values
Particularities
of ethnic life
Cultural
differences
|
-Correspondence
between internal and international laws
-Breach
of political obligations
-Weakness
of the political system
-Making
the State behavior ethnic
-Strategy
of the people and State formation
-Self-perception
of ethnic groups
-Participation
of ethnic groups in decision-making
-Existence
of laws protecting national minorities and corresponding constitutional
clauses
-Foreign
allies
-Political
demarcation due to national features
-Ethnopolitical
fragmentation and mobilization
-Asymmetry
of political relations
-The
level of democratic consolidation
-Structure
of the society
-Structure
of political institutes
-Structure
of the state
-The
problem of citizenship and civic rights
|
Social
breakup
Social
labels
|
Mass
demonstrations
Mass
media
| |
Interstate
|
Interpretation
of the past. Blank spots of history
|
Particularities
of ethnic life
Traditions
Distinctive
religious values
Cultural
differences
|
Investments
Economic
competition
|
Social
stereotypes
Public
relations
|
International
climate of mass media
Strong
parent states
Possibilities
of intergration
|
If
we consider the early warning system in connection with conflict resolving
system, the above matrix should be supplemented with the matrix of the
corresponding subjects of influence and measures.4
Levels
| Subjects of influence | Measures |
Interpersonal attitudes
|
Referent (formal and informal) groups, people
of authority
|
People’s
diplomacy, mediation, civic education
|
Minor groups
|
Local
administration, trustworthy policy-makers, representatives of the church
|
People’s
diplomacy, mediation, trainings in leadership, trainings in conflict
resolving, proper representation in decision-making by the local
administration, changes in politics in the field of education and the like
(police reform), education in the field of human rights
|
Communities (ethnic groups)
|
Local
administration, social-cultural organizations, NGO, women’s organizations
|
People’s
diplomacy, mediation, negotiations, management of differences, working
meetings in problem solving, joint work, education in the field of human
rights, power division
|
Regional
|
State
regional organs, Funds, institutes, NGO
|
Negotiations,
transboundary cooperation, support of task programs
|
Intrastate
|
Ombudsmen,
U.N.O High Commissioner in national minorities. State institutes
|
Competence
of mass media, radio and TV-programs of national minorities, multicultural
education, monitoring of human rights, political reforms
|
Interstate
|
Governments,
|
Preventive
diplomacy, track-two diplomacy, OBSE Human Dimension mechanism, exchange
programs, bilateral agreements, economic integration, unofficial
facilitation, joint programs in environment protection, management of natural
resources use, gestures of good will
|
In
fact, much of cited in the matrices has been carried out in the Crimea during the last decade. This work has become more purposeful
and effective after introduction of the objective standards of work by the UNDP
organizations. At the same time it can be mentioned that a vast area of
possibilities not only to prevent and resolve interethnic conflicts in the Crimea , but also to assist in its stable development,
remains idle.
Summarizing everything mentioned
above, we may say that the EWS in the Crimea
might conduct monitoring according to the following indicators (or categories):
The indicators of the first group
Power and politics
State and administrative structure (existence
of the law about local government, about national minorities, local
administrations, Councils under the President, regional mejlises – local
authorities of Crimean tatars, national-cultural societies).
Political
regime and political doctrine (combination of unitarity of the State and
territorial autonomy of the Crimea, institutions of local governing, parties
and blocs, particularities of Mejlis – the central organ of Crimean tatars, as
a state-party system, elections and power transfer system, National and State
programs at different levels).
Ethnic
representation (in the power, business, mass media, science, etc.).
“Center-periphery”
relation.
Individual
and group rights (legislative security, violations, control, activity in the
field of human rights protection; mechanisms of the laws realization).
Public
order and control (the status and ethnic membership in the militia, office of
public prosecutor, courts and justice system, the usage of forces of law and
order in the streets - the militia, military units).
Legitimateness,
legality and competence of the leaders and authorities. (The government change.
Establishment of new organs and liquidation or reorganization of old ones. The
change of the governing body of the organs involved in decision of problems of
interethnic relations.)
Opposition
forces and their ideology.
Official
symbols and the calendar.
The indicators of the second group
Economics
Production and macroeconomic dynamics.
(Analysis of the State and regional budgets according to the years and the
parameters, connected with decision of problems of interethnic relations.)
The
level of income and the gap in income between social and ethnic groups.
Unemployment
and its character.
Labor
division (ethnic, regional; employment in the prestigious spheres).
Social
mobility. (Marginal groups and their composition.)
Participation
in privatization, including that of the land.
Land
resources (the land reform, quality of the land, per capita quantity, potentialities
of its use).
Water
resources and conditions of their use (drinking water, watering, conduits,
etc.).
Infrastructure
of the settlements of compact dwelling of the deported.
Ecological
problems.
Social
protectability.
Character
of delinquency.
The indicators of the third group
Social relations
Contacts and stereotypes.
The past conflicts and group traumas.
Behavior and views of ethnic group leaders.
(Mobilization abilities of ethnic groups and their leaders (ratings in their
own ethnic group and in other ones).
Groups of the malcontent.
Electoral behavior of ethnic groups.
Changes in self-appraisal (ethnic and social
correlation, new and old identities).
Myths.
Fears.
The level of tolerance.
The development of the third sector and its
particularities.
The indicators of the fourth group
Demography and migration
Population (dynamics of the population size,
ethnic composition, the level of urbanization, etc.).
Interethnic marriages and divorces.
Natality (birth-rate, death-rate, life
expectancy).
Migration (internal and external;
refugees, repatriates, seasonal workers). Internal migration: ethnosocial
particularities of urbanization, taking into account social composition of the
deported citizens.
The
number of refugees from the regions of the “hot” interethnic conflicts.
The indicators of the fifth group
Culture, education, mass media
Cultural dominants (ethnic purposes,
stereotypes, orientations, values and their interiorization in process of
upbringing).
Religion
(confessional composition and dynamics of its modification, growth of religious
communes and religious buildings, inter-confessional tolerance and interaction,
the role of the State and its attitude towards different confessions, the place
of the religion in public consciousness and activity of ethnic communes).
Conditions
of the languages functioning (legislation concerning languages, the official
language, the language of business, education, mass media, interethnic
communication).
School
education (the State support of the education in the native languages,
availability of handbooks and methodical literature, staff, ethnic composition
of the teachers).
Higher
education (ethnic composition of students, contents of courses, students’
life).
Mass
media (structure, education and ethnic composition of journalists, independence
and control, contents of programs).
Holidays
and historic dates (conditions of carrying out, support by authorities,
participation of policy-makers, participation of different ethnic groups).
The indicators of the sixth group
External (foreign) conditions
Existence and influence from the part of
parent-states and neighboring countries with kindred culture and religion.
External support of opposition groups.
Regional
stability.
Fight
for geopolitical influence.
Transboundary
cooperation.
Modification
of the image (of the country, region, ethnic group).
It would be great to follow all the
six groups of the indicators in all the mentioned parameters. However, it is
not possible based on the available resources, and is superfluous for making
political decisions. Thus, there is a task of concentration, choosing the most
important indicators, which would cover the entire problem field or a
considerable part of it with necessity and high degree of sufficiency. The
difficulty is that one can select quite a number of such optimal
configurations. We will propose our own variant based on the two criteria
mentioned above: objectivity and price. An important selection criterion may
become what we know to be the most destabilizing factors at present:
-
the language situation;
-
social-political status of
an ethnic group and as a consequence different attitude towards different
branches and levels of power;
-
economic status of an ethnic
group.
We would like to note straight away that some parameters are of a
structural character, their modification lasts for a long period of time and
they exceed the limits of the EWS, calculated for a maximum period of one year.
Examples of it are almost all the parameters of the indicators of the first group
“power and politics”. Here fundamental changes occur relatively quickly
in connection with a political crisis only. The stable political system prefers
to carry them out through bureaucratic procedures preventing sudden
fluctuations of the political structures. However, there exist several
parameters, which may be counted in the EWS. They are legitimateness and
competence of the leaders and power, as well as representation of different
ethnic groups in different structures at all the levels. It is obvious that
such representation takes a long period of time too, but here analysis of the
situation in dynamics during the last years is quite helpful. If a question of
representation is rather a problem of information acquisition with help of
State organs, legitimateness and competence may be determined by both a public
opinion poll and acquisition of indirect objective data. For instance, data
about measures taken (meetings, business trips, State decrees, etc.) with
participation of central authorities and State machinery for decision of
interethnic problems. Their level, analyzed in dynamics year by year, will
provide indirect characteristics of the parameters marked. Moreover, these data
carry more than just a characteristic of legitimateness and competence. They
can be received in the corresponding Crimean ministries, the President
representation, the Supreme Council, arranging mechanism of collection and
supply of such information.
The second group of the indicators “economics” may be characterized by the following countable parameters: buying
business patents, the quantity of flats and houses bought in the Crimea , purchase and sale of cars, receiving the foreign
passports for travels. All these data characterize the real income of the
population and its economic opportunities. If we count them for a definite
number of people on the same scale, it will be easy to determine the real
economic condition of this or that ethnic group. In fact, such hardly-countable
parameters in Crimean reality as unemployment and social protectability will be
covered too. Character of the delinquency is a very interesting parameter. It
is obvious that proposed methods are characterized by the collection of
indirect data, which may nevertheless describe the picture three-dimensionally,
objectively and with the maximal degree of accuracy possible in the country
suffering from the systemic crisis. On this way difficulties will appear at the
first stage. But once created, the system may work effectively and for a long
period.
The third group of the indicators “social
relations”
is to a greater extent based on analysis of psychological phenomena.
Qualitative character of these parameters makes them difficult to be counted.
Of course, there are many methods: public opinion polls, focus groups,
interviews, etc. Not rejecting them, we would propose the frequency analysis of
words in the Crimean press. Here, too, difficulties will be met with at the
first stage only, later on the work becoming the question of technique.
The indicators of the fourth group “demography and migration” possess a great degree of objectivity. Taking into consideration the
particularities of our country and the strict character of citizens’ migration
fixation, this indicator may be considered the most reliable. Especially under
the conditions when the next population census is postponed due to its high
cost for the country. Demographic and migration processes are of great
heuristic value, as taking into account other factors, they allow to make
serious prognoses about the development of interethnic relations. In
particular, the law of 20% will unambiguously work for the Crimea .
Namely, if the size of one of ethnic groups exceeds 20% in this or that
polyethnic society, it causes social-political changes in the society. Of
course, 20% is a relative figure, and here some deviations are possible. But
analysis of interethnic conflicts in the post-Soviet republics shows that such
regularity is observed. It may seem that there are examples denying this
regularity. For instance, Russians in the Baltic States .
As a matter of fact, it is not so. There the processes are at the complex
uncompleted stage and require their settlement. Strictly speaking, we do not
discover anything fundamentally new here. We adopted this regularity from
management theory. If one fifth of the firm employees are ready to changes,
they will take place.
Some parameters of the indicators of the fifth group “Culture,
education, mass media” can be objectively analyzed as well. The
Ministry of Education has at its disposal detailed information about the
quantity of pupils, classes, and schools with ethnic compositions of pupils and
teaching in this or that language. At this, the information is arranged
according to the years. It is obvious that the prognosis based on these data is
highly reliable. Taking into account demographic and migration tendencies, it
is quite real to calculate the composition of active population by years,
potential of any ethnic group by this or that elections, etc. And, in
consequence, it is possible to draw conclusions about the status of interethnic
relations not only for a short period, but also for quite a long time. Teaching
in native languages and the dynamics in the development of school system
certainly influence interethnic relations. Broadcasting in native languages is
an important parameter, too. In the Crimea ,
not only the duration, but also the source of broadcasting takes on special
significance. All these data may be collected and analyzed from the
quantitative point of view. It would be of interest to present an objective
picture of revival and development of different mass confessions in the Crimea , all the more, as they are concentrated on
corresponding ethnopolitical groups. The number of new-opened churches,
cloisters, tabernacles, mosques and, consequently, finances spent on this, will
make the picture of international relations more vivid. Rhetoric will be
replaced by the study of objective parameters.
The indicators of the sixth group “external (foreign) conditions” undoubtedly influence the internal status of the Crimea .
However, relations between geopolitical players in the Crimea are gradually
coming to the situation of political dialogue, excluding rude interference in
internal affairs of Ukraine Black Sea
countries. The quantity of foreign investments per capita might become one of
your indices of the development of the situation in the Crimea .
Geography of investments might show the perspective for regional and
transboundary development of the Crimea . This
parameter would characterize objective foreign evaluation of its
development.
It should be mentioned that some data might be presented graphically.
After a certain data processing they might be compared, and in such a case some
conclusions would be confirmed by others; the degree of their reliability would
be growing and probability of prognosis increase.
There may be doubts as to the possibility of the data collection on the
parameters mentioned. There is a problem, but it may be easily solved, if those
bodies and organizations, which should present the corresponding information,
would be interested in the EWS creation and in the results it will produce.
Annual statistic reports on the Crimea by the
Republican Committee in statistics may be of great help.
At present, in cooperation with UNDP (CIDP) a pilot study to work
through the EWS mechanism has been carried out. At this, to take the data on the
indicators mentioned above (or similar ones) interviewing of both the Crimea inhabitants and experts was used. Not denying the
significance of such a method, it should be taken into account that under the
conditions of interethnic tension and involvement of the interviewers
themselves into social-political reality, the results may be doubtful and
considered as a specific instrument of manipulation. Unfortunately, this
opinion is so widespread and proved by numerous facts of studies of poor
quality, that it made Association of Sociologists of Ukraine adopt an ethic
code and corresponding means. The proposed approach will encounter the same
problems in interpretation of the database collected. One indisputable
advantage is that it will be difficult to call in question the database itself.
And facts are stubborn things, they make a great deal clear and evident even
without any interpretation.
It is obvious that to solve such a hard task as the EWS creation, it
will be necessary to use different methods, taking into account the criteria
mentioned above. Such most operational methods may include: analysis of the
documents, collection and analysis of the statistic data, public opinion polls,
content analysis of the press.
We dwelt on the core and structure of the CEWS only. It should be
supplemented with a set of measures, such as:
1. Creation and introduction into the system of continuous education the
appropriate courses:
-
programs of conflict warning
and resolving;
-
mediation;
-
negotiation process;
-
cross-cultural adaptation;
-
culture of peace and
tolerance;
-
the third sector problems
(youth leadership, strategic planning and work in teams, NGO’s management,
project management, fundraising, etc.);
-
peace-making;
-
problems of interethnic relations;
-
gender factor in interethnic
problem resolving.
2. Preparation of a group of
trainers in the field of conflict warning, resolving and management from among
lecturers to work with the leaders of communities in order to prepare trainers
for the communities;
3. Think tank and knowledge base creation;
4. Carrying out a series of seminars in the topics mentioned in the
regions;
5. Carrying out a series of seminars on the problem of the social order:
cooperation of the State and NGOs (formation of different social groups in
certain forms of activity, establishment and support of relatively stable
structure of intra-group and inetr-group relations, socialization and
adaptation, norm-creation and social control stimulation, contribution to new
social institutions foundation);
6. Separation of the youth movement as a priority with its own system of
measures;
7. Human rights monitoring;
8. International consultations for the experts working in the region;
9. The exchange of delegations to get acquainted with experience of
different countries in interethnic conflict resolving;
10. Working meetings of ethnic communities leaders with law-enforcement
organs and other State institutions and local authorities;
11. Teaching peace-making to all the journalists of all the ethnic
groups, joint creation of the positive image of the ethnic groups of the Crimea ;
12. Joint interethnic projects;
13. Support of the third sector.
The system of the EWS measures and instruments of conflict warning is
not at all limited by the listed issues. Practice, as a rule, suggests new
forms, most adequate for a given region. Here the most important thing is to
create certain stable motivation for conflict warning with help of these
measures, and in such a case there will appear new forms of work.
Organizational aspects of the system were excluded from this article, as
they are technical problems of management.
In writing this article we used
materials and experience of the UNDP, Institute of ethnology and ethnography of
Russian Academy of Sciences, consultations and propositions of the faculty of
Institute of Conflict Analysis and Resolving of George Mason University, as
well as the materials of the following sites:
1 www.csf.colorado.edu/isa/isn/23-1/brecke.html
(Brecke P. An Agenda for Conflict Early Warning Research)
4 see ibid.
6 www.
oau-oua.org/document/mechanism/english/mech02.htm
7 www.undp.org/rbec/programmes/regional/dgp.htm
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